Florida Conservative

A Conservative Take on Florida and U.S. Politics

Warning: Landslide Hazard Area

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I’m not a betting man, but if I were we could probably make some easy money at intrade.com.  First, we would check out their home page to view the most active markets.  Luckily for us, the Presidential Election markets are at the very top and show President Obama beating Governor Romney about 56-42%.  It’s been a long time since there was an election that lopsided but that’s what the markets believe.  [Note:  The results of previous elections were 51-48% (2004), 48-48% (2000), 49-41-8% (1996), 43-38-19% (1992), 53-46% (1988), 59-41% (1984), and 51-41-7% (1980).  Landslides are VERY uncommon except in cases of an extremely popular or unpopular sitting President.]  Keep in mind that intrade also gave overturning the Affordable Care Act 80%+ probability.  How’d that pan out?

Second, we would remember the lessons learned in the 2008 Presidential Election. If your memory is as bad as mine, this link will probably help.  How did President Obama win 53-46%?  I think it boils down to two key factors:  the anti-Bush vote and the “historic black Presidency” vote.  Many Americans were weary of former President Bush and his Republican party, so they chose to vote AGAINST Senator McCain.  The Democratic Party also enjoyed a very energized minority base due to the possibility of the first “black President.”  That really mattered to people who identified as minorities and whites who felt less racist for casting a vote in favor of a minority candidate. 

Next, we should consider the current poll results.  RealClearPolitics.com shows a 47-45% decision in President Obama’s favor, thus indicating a very tight race.  Additional analysis highlights some interesting findings, however.  Not all registered voters vote (meaning likely voters are probably a better estimate) and individual polls appear to be oversampling Democrats.  It’s interesting that both recent polls limited to likely voters put Romney narrowly in the lead.  It’s also interesting to note that Democrats are being oversampled in the remaining polls.

Finally, we would consider what has changed since 2008.  The 2010 elections were very unfavorable to the Democratic party and public sentiment hasn’t changed much since.  Wayne Root (2008 Libertarian Nominee for President) wrote a very interesting piece about the core groups who lifted President Obama to the Presidency in 2008.  With their passion demonstrably waning, a close race seems to be the floor for Governor Romney.  A 4-5% margin of victory with 300+ electoral votes is much more likely.

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Written by floridaconservative

July 17, 2012 at 10:45 AM

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